Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Superspreader Turkeys

Public health officials have been pleading with Americans to stay home this year for Thanksgiving. And, despite busy airports this past weekend, most people plan to follow their advice, according to a huge survey asking Americans about their holiday plans.

Nationwide, the survey found that only around 27 percent of Americans plan to dine with people outside their household. That number is roughly consistent with the results of several recent smaller surveys, including those from YouGov, the Covid States Project and researchers at Ohio State University, which all find fewer than a third of Americans plan to celebrate in groups.

It also aligns with the results of a separate informal Times survey of epidemiologists. Out of 635 public health experts, only around 21 percent of them planned to celebrate Thanksgiving with people outside their household. The two surveys — of ordinary Americans and of epidemiologists — used identical question wording.

There is substantial regional variation in Thanksgiving plans, with people in some parts of the country much more likely to gather with others. In parts of Vermont, for example, only about 14 percent of households will be celebrating with people outside their household. In parts of Missouri, more than half of residents plan to.

Public health officials are worried about Thanksgiving celebrations as coronavirus cases have reached record highs in many areas of the country. Traditional holiday celebrations, with long meals indoors and with some travel typically involved, could contribute to more cases of the disease, which is primarily spread through droplets and aerosols that can linger in unventilated indoor spaces. Last week, an array of federal and state health officials urged Americans to skip such plans and stay home for the holiday.

As in a similar survey of mask-wearing from the summer, partisanship appears to explain much of the regional variation in Thanksgiving plans. Over all, survey respondents who identified as members of the Libertarian, Green or RepuGNican parties were more likely to be planning a multi-household Thanksgiving than Democrats or those unaffiliated with a political party.

States that UNpresident Pathogen-in-Cheat won in the election this month were generally more likely to have higher rates of planned multi-household Thanksgivings than states won by Joe Biden

[In other words, natural selection is still in operation.]




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