Friday, January 22, 2021

More infectious + deadlier?

When lockdown measures = too little, too late ...

New UK variant 'may be more deadly'Early evidence suggests the variant of coronavirus that emerged in the UK may be more deadly, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said. The data come from mathematicians comparing death rates in people infected with either the new or the old versions of the virus. The new more infectious variant has already spread widely across the UK. However, there is still huge uncertainty around the numbers - and vaccines are expected to work.

Previous work suggests the new variant spreads between 30% and 70% faster than others, and there are hints it is around 30% more deadly. For example, with 1,000 60-year-olds infected with the old variant, 10 of them might be expected to die. But this rises to around 13 with the new variant. This difference is found when looking at everyone testing positive for COVID, but analysing only hospital data has found no increase in the death rate. Hospital care has improved over the course of the pandemic as doctors get better at treating the disease.

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